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The content on this blog is my personal opinion and does not reflect the views of the Department of Defense or the US Navy in any way.


Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Democratic Coalitions

FiveThirtyEight continues to do an awesome job with their coverage of US elections; they just recently posted several articles analyzing the candidates for the Democratic presidential primary.

... It's all still quite speculative, of course, and as the article warns, there's a lot of stuff in it that will probably look a bit questionable in retrospect. But for an analysis conducted a full year and a half away from the nomination, I think it's decent. It's a pretty good way to think about what the primary candidates have to do and how they could go about doing it, if nothing else - and it's a chance for the Democrats to start thinking about which groups they belong to and what coalitions they'd accept.

I find myself mostly in agreement with the idea that the "mainstream" or "most likely" candidates (e.g. Biden and Sanders) are probably weaker than they look, although I don't know if I really think that means one of the others will take it instead, given how low the name recognition is for everyone else. Then again, there's plenty of time for that to change.

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