Election Forecasting, Part Two

And now FiveThirtyEight has released their Senate forecasts to go along with their House forecasts.

Pretty much everything I said last time applies equally well to this one, and I'd strongly encourage reading their most recent detailed article about their forecasts. To me, the most interesting detail to come out of the combination of the two forecasts is that the most commonly predicted result - that the Democrats will win the House but the Republicans will keep control over the Senate - actually has just under a 50% chance of happening. There's still a decent chance that the Democrats will get the Senate as well as the House, and somewhat longer but still possible odds that the Republicans keep everything.